As a result of the unprecedented assessment increases to commercial and industrial property values in Cook County, how will lenders deal with the resulting impact on their borrowers' tax liabilities? How will they respond to borrowers who claim they cannot meet their lender's call for substantial upward adjustments in their tax escrows? With regard to income producing properties, what happens when loan to value ratios change due to the decline in market values resulting from the affect of additional property tax expenses on the borrower's NOI. A $50,000 increase in property tax expenses, capped at 7%, could diminish the market value of a property by more than $700,000. It's not always that simple, but a decline in market value is the logical consequence of a higher tax bill for both owner/occupants and landlords. And that leads to an additional line of inquiry as to how tenants, and prospective tenants, will respond to a significant increase in their overall rent coming from these potential increases in their property tax liabilities? Will it, or has it already, caused a slow down in both leasing and sales activity? Will prospective tenants, as well as prospective purchasers and lenders, be taking a more cautious approach to making their final decisions going forward? How will lenders ultimately respond to their increased risk as existing loan to value ratios begin to fluctuate? The typical response would be for them to adjust interest rates upward where possible, to account for the sudden increase in risk, and to work to get their loan to value ratios back in synch. How they choose to accomplish this could have significant consequences for the real estate market.
Ultimately, will the anticipated significant increase in Cook County property taxes for commercial and industrial property owners cause just a minor leak, or a major breach in the real estate dam? Stay tuned!